The Olmert-Livni-Barak-Yishai government is marching the country into another military confrontation with an Iranian proxy army. As was the case in the last confrontation with an Iranian proxy army two years ago, the country's leaders are fully committed to Israel's strategic defeat in the current one.
Tuesday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak will meet ahead of Wednesday's security cabinet meeting to determine their preferred course of action in Gaza. As media reports and statements by the three's surrogates over the past several days make clear, Israel's political leaders oppose launching a military campaign aimed at defeating Hamas's Iranian directed, financed, trained and armed army and dislodging Hamas's jihadist regime from power.
Indeed, as their actions and statements over the past several months make clear, what Israel's political leaders really aspire to is a cease-fire agreement with Iran's Palestinian proxy regime. Under the proposed cease-fire, Hamas will suspend or scale back its illegal missile war against Israeli civilians in the South. In return, Israel will effectively accept Hamas rule of Gaza. Israel will allow Hamas to continue to build up its military forces in Gaza and have open access to the Sinai.
In light of Hamas's negotiations with Fatah towards the reestablishment of a Hamas-dominated Palestinian Authority unity government, such a cease-fire will also entail an end to the economic isolation of Gaza. Since they would be formally governed by Fatah – Israel's "peace partner," Gazans will be allowed to use Israeli ports and even build their own seaport and perhaps reopen their airport in Rafah. The debate in the West over whether or not to negotiate with Hamas will effectively end – with an international embrace of Hamas as Fatah's partner.
For the Olmert-Livni-Barak-Yishai government, a cease-fire is attractive politically. By providing a temporary respite from the jihadist missile attacks against southern Israel, the cease-fire will suspend the local media's coverage of the grave and gathering threat to Israel's security in the South. And the lull in media coverage of the Iranian threat in Gaza will provide breathing room for the scandal-ridden and deeply unpopular Olmert-Livni-Barak-Yishai government as it seeks desperately to avoid new general elections.
Gifted politicians that they are, Olmert, Livni and Barak know that if they decide Tuesday to reject the IDF's pleas to conduct a military campaign to dislodge Hamas again and opt instead to sign the Egyptian-mediated cease-fire deal with Iran's Palestinian army, they will be properly accused of political opportunism and cowardice by the media and their political opponents. So to sign on to a deal with Hamas, they need military cover.
As The Jerusalem Post reported last week, that smokescreen will likely be what Olmert, Livni, Barak and their surrogates refer to as a "medium-sized military option" against Hamas. The aim of their preferred military approach is not to defeat Hamas. They just want to "send it a message." In plain English, what their preferred military option involves is committing IDF forces to battle in numbers insufficient to defeat Hamas. IDF forces will be killed in battle and in the end, Hamas will still control Gaza. But in their public speeches, Olmert, Livni and Barak will claim victory arguing that now that they have "sent Hamas a message" they can sign the cease-fire agreement.
For their part, the local media will justify the government's decisions and agree to present them to the public as a strategic achievement. The media can be expected to do so for two reasons. First, they will not wish to upset the families of the soldiers who will die in the campaign by noting that their lives were sacrificed for nothing. And second, the leftist media is uninterested in general elections which will bring Likud to power and so they will work to block them by collaborating with the government in its attempts to pretend that the "medium-sized military operation" was a good idea.
As for the political opposition, as was the case in the Second Lebanon War, they will be unwilling to criticize the government while Israeli forces are risking their lives in battle. Afterwards, they will fear being castigated by the government and its media flacks as "unpatriotic" or "warmongering" if they criticize the outcome of the "medium-sized military operation" that will leave Hamas and Iran strengthened and free to expand their control to Judea and Samaria.
In short, Olmert, Livni and Barak are about to decide to sacrifice the lives of IDF soldiers in order to delude the public into believing that signing a cease-fire agreement that leaves Hamas in charge of Gaza and in a position to take over Judea and Samaria is a strategically sound policy.
This drastic assertion could be easily attacked as delusional and even paranoid if we hadn't been here before. But we have.
Two years ago, Israel was the victim of naked aggression when Hizbullah forces launched an unprovoked attack on an IDF patrol, killed three soldiers and abducted Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser while pummeling northern Israel with Katyusha rockets and short-range missiles. Although Olmert at the time declared war against Hizbullah, he, Livni and then defense minister Amir Peretz refused to order the IDF to defeat Hizbullah.
They refused for weeks to launch a ground campaign. They refused for weeks to call up reserve units. Interested in "sending a signal" to Hizbullah rather than defeating its forces, for four weeks they ordered the IDF to conduct operations with no operational logic in which IDF forces were killed in battles that had no strategic purpose.
Then, after squandering some 30 days of fruitless fighting, reacting to the public outcry against his incompetence, Olmert belatedly ordered a ground assault of South Lebanon. He ordered IDF forces to move in helter-skelter and attempt to complete an operation that was planned to take more than 96 hours in 48 hours. Most egregiously, the entire operation was launched after the UN Security Council had passed resolution 1701 defining the terms of Israel's cease-fire with Iran's Lebanese proxy army.
That is, even if the campaign had been successful, it would have had no impact on the outcome of the war which had already been determined – with Israeli support – in New York. And yet, to assuage the public demand for victory, the Olmert-Livni-Peretz-Yishai government launched the last minute "medium-sized" 48-hour attack in which 33 IDF forces were killed in a battle for nothing.
Resolution 1701 left Hizbullah intact and provided the illegal army of jihad with unprecedented political legitimacy. Under the cover of 1701, Iran and Syria have rebuilt Hizbullah's forces, which in turn have reasserted their military control over South Lebanon.
Just last week Barak warned that Hizbullah is setting up fortified positions along the border. He also said, "The Syrians are working in intimate cooperation with Hizbullah, and they are in large part responsible for the transfer of weapons and supplies to Hizbullah. The ultimate responsibility, as far as we're concerned, lies with Hizbullah on the one hand, and with the Iranians and the Syrians on the other." Barak's statements came two weeks after Hizbullah effectively overthrew the pro-Western Saniora government and through the good offices of the Qataris, forced the March 14 democracy movement to sign the Doha agreement, which transfers control of the country to Hizbullah. Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah was then quick to announce his army's subservience to Teheran.
The Olmert-Livni-Barak-Yishai government responded to Hizbullah's violent takeover of the Lebanese government by rewarding it. As Michael Young of Beirut's Daily Star wrote recently, Hizbullah is presenting its swap of dead IDF soldiers' body parts for Hizbullah spy Nissim Nasser as a first step towards a massive Israeli release of Hizbullah and Palestinian terrorists from its prisons in exchange for Regev and Goldwasser.
Such a prisoner release will play directly into Hizbullah's hands. It will effectively justify Hizbullah's decision to go to war with Israel two years ago to the Lebanese public. Such justification is essential as Hizbullah moves forward towards gaining internal Lebanese acceptance of its role as ruler of Lebanon.
Beyond its effective support of Hizbullah, the Olmert-Livni-Barak-Yishai government is strengthening the Iranian-controlled axis by conducting negotiations toward the surrender of the Golan Heights with Syrian President and Iranian proxy Bashar Assad. Here too, Israel is signaling to Assad that his decision to cast his lot with Teheran was a wise one.
The international consequences of Israel's behavior have already been unmistakable. This week both French President Nicholas Sarkozy and British Foreign Minister David Miliband visited Lebanon and accepted Hizbullah's demand for control over Mt. Dov on the Golan Heights. Israel seized the strategically vital area which controls the approaches to the Galilee in the 1967 Six Day War from Syria. Hizbullah claimed that it is continued Israeli control of the area that justified its war of aggression two years ago.
This all brings us back to the situation in Gaza. In his post-Doha address, Nasrallah urged Hamas to follow his successful model of war against Israel both in order to hasten Israel's destruction and to facilitate the extension of the terror group's control to Judea and Samaria. And of course, that is precisely what Hamas has been doing for the past two years.
The Olmert-Livni-Barak-Yishai government's political opponents have claimed that with the ongoing corruption probes against the prime minister, the government lacks the political legitimacy to conduct a military campaign in Gaza. This is a false assertion. As Israel's elected leaders, the Olmert-Livni-Barak-Yishai government has a duty to defend the country and the only way to do so is to launch a military campaign in Gaza.
The problem is that the Olmert-Livni-Barak-Yishai government is incompetent to successfully carry out such an essential campaign. As in Lebanon two years ago, so in Gaza today, the type of campaign that this government will launch will only endanger Israel still further.
Originally published in the Jerusalem Post.
The longer Prime Minister Olmert remains in office, the more ominous it is for Israel. It’s too bad the current government hasn’t learned its lessons from the previous war in Lebanon. If the IDF isn’t allowed to defeat Hamas in Gaza, then Arabs will become emboldened to launch more attacks on Southern Israel. Israel lost a lot of respect when it suffered a strategic defeat in Lebanon two years ago. Hizbullah has redeployed south of the Litani River. And Hamas terrorists continue to play cat and mouse with the IDF.
I think you overestimate the government’s ability to ward off such a military confrontation.
Iran wants war with Israel, and has created proxy armies to wage that fight, in as much as Iran shares no border.
Syria is the chief lieutenant of the Iranians.
Whatever the government does, war is on the horizon, and will remain on the horizon until such time as Israel refuses to permit terror bases to be built along her borders, and refuses to permit adjacent states to create terror armies, which means Israel has to take on and take out Syria.
In ’73, you guys were on a roll out there on the Damacan plain, and heading for a rendezvous with the Syrian capital. But then the Soviets intervened, Washington got nervous fast, ————- not unreasonable that, ———- and the IDF came to a halt.
But now the Syrians don’t have a nuclear armed power backing them up.
If ever there was a time for the Israelis to pay off some old scores, now’s the time, when the Syrians don’t have anyone capable of airlifting division after division to the battlespace.
I thought the whole purpose of the recent Lebanon fracas was to ostensbily take on Hezbollah, but to really lure the stupid Syrians on to the battlefield, which would allow you to thoroughly hammer them, drive them out of Lebanon, and this time, cross into Syrian proper, reducing her military in a grand tour of Syria.
THAT would have been something, that would have left the region with another demonstration of Western military prowess. Coming so soon off of the crushing of the Taliban, and the swift take down of Saddam, such a demonstration would have garnered more traction.
Way back in the early ’80s, wasn’t the idea of Peace for Gal. supposed to be to move on the PLO, crush them, take out the SAMs in the Bekaa, take on the Syrian Air Force of whatever military presence intrudes in Lebanon, link up with the Christian militia to the North, and place the Christians in the saddle in Lebanon.
Strategically, that was a damn good idea, and should have been ruthlessly pursued.
Outside of taking on the terror sponsors, Iran, Syria and the sauds, —— what’s left for Israel but endless rounds of punitive operations launched in Southen Lebanon and now Gaza.
Sure the targeted hit demonstrates skill and savvy. And sure the dirtball in question deserves it, and it’s right and proper that he get it.
But how does that advance the end game, which is genuine security, without terror armies on her borders.
The only answer is to hit the head of the serpent, and stop chasing the tail around, and here the tail is in Gaza, in Southern Lebanon.
What’s the value of military power that won’t be used.
Somebody is going to have to go in to the terror bastions, the terror redoubts, and destroy them.
And the longer you wait to do it, the more they’re fortifying.
They’re making it like Iwo, like Tarawa, like Pelilieu. They’re hardening pillboxes.
War’s goal is a more perfect peace.
That’s where the morality of war exists, in the peace, the true peace, that is aimed for.
All Israel is doing, and has been doing for some time, is treading water.
And I can’t imagine the difficulty of getting a populace up for war, when but months prior the government has been chirping about the prospect of chirping with terrorists.
A kid going out there to take on killers and dirtballs, is going to have a morale problem when he thinks that I’m might die against these guys, and instead of my government finishing them off, and sealing my death with victory, final victory, they’re use my death as an excuse to enter into additional worthless discussions.
It’s like Hamburger Hill. Recall the General who took the hill, when asked why he did so, said the enemy was there. The hill itself was of no significance, the fact that the enemy was there, made it significant. “I found the enemy on that hill, and attacked him, if I find him on another, I’ll attack him there.”
And within weeks Hamburger Hill, a hill which the 101st paid for in blood, was deserted.
I don’t know what to think of Israel’s future, if all she has to look forward to is an endless series of military “actions,” “demonstrations,” “raids,” “strikes,” “interventions” and “incursions,” all of which are intended to demonstrate utter seriousness, but by their limited nature, demonstrate precisely the opposite.
Of late, the only thing Israel has told her enemies is that she is absolutely determined to avoid trouble.
In a neighborhood, where trouble is commonplace.
If Israel was looking for a quiet life, she picked the wrong corner of the universe to set up shop.
It isn’t going to happen, not until such time as Israel weapons up, saddles up, and moves on her enemies in strength. Do that.
And this time, don’t stop at the borders.
Take the grand tour of Syria.
Another great, clearly written article. Not a thing can be disputed in the precise points you made. This totally inept government is playing right into the hands of the terrorists backed by Iran. Olmert is a disgrace and must go!
We can not afford to wait 6 months for elections, they are desperately needed now.
We need people with clear visions that can make strong sensible decisions for the future existence of our country.
Have you ever thought of getting into politics?
Good article ,but it could have been better.
You failed to adress who is the Puppet Master pulling Olmert,Livni,Barak’s strings.
What the loyal Israeli lap dogs do every time they get their instructions from Washington.
The reason there will be no victory over Hamas is the same reason Israel was denied victory over Hizbollah.
The truth is Egypt and Saudi Arabia called their friend George and pressured him to rein in Israel while victory was approaching.
They threatened to step in unless big emperor daddy stopped his little vassal state, pronto.
All it took was a phone call and the once great Israel, now little puppy rolled over.
Since Israel’s marriage to her favorite whore Israel no longer knows the concept of victory.
The U.S. will not permit Israle to defeat another arab army once again. It has caused too much low self esteem in the Arab wolrd and Bush aims to level the playing felid.
Olmert and fellow puppies oblige their Master.
You failed to adress who it was who pushed the 2006 Lebanon War ceasefire resolution into the U.N.
You failed to adress who it was that called P.M. Olmert on the phone and told him to retreat the IDF just as they were gaining ground, before they had acheived victory against Hezbollah.
You failed to address who is was wo forced Israel to surrender the Gaza Rafah crossing into smugglers paradise Egypt for his false peace Road Map.You failed to mentioned who brought Hamastan Gaza into existence by his pressure for free and democratic elections there.
You failed to mention the name of the nation and it’s agenda which Israel religiously obeys that has brought this once sovereign Israel to the place she now is.
You failed to deal with the head of the rat that brings Israel to the abyss of destruction under the lie of friend and the delusion of peace.
There are none so blind as those who refuse to see and keep the delusion strong over am Yisrael.
The problem is faithless Israeli leadership,Netanyahu included who cannot stop bowing to the will of their pimp god of the Potomac.
(Caroline I added Sharon and corrected poor spelling)
Good article ,but it could have been better.
You failed to adress who is the Puppet Master pulling Olmert,Livni,Barak’s strings.
What the loyal Israeli lap dogs do every time they get their instructions from Washington.
The reason there will be no victory over Hamas is the same reason Israel was denied victory over Hizbollah.
The truth is Egypt and Saudi Arabia called their friend George and pressured him to rein in Israel while victory was approaching.
They threatened to step in unless big emperor daddy stopped his little vassal state, pronto.
All it took was a phone call and the once great Israel, now little puppy rolled over.
Since Israel’s marriage to her favorite whore Israel no longer knows the concept of victory.
The U.S. will not permit Israel to defeat another arab army once again. It has caused too much low self esteem in the Arab world and Bush aims to level the playing feild.
Olmert and fellow puppies oblige their Master.
You failed to adress who it was who pushed the 2006 Lebanon War ceasefire resolution into the U.N.
You failed to adress who it was that called P.M. Olmert on the phone and told him to retreat the IDF just as they were gaining ground, before they had acheived victory against Hezbollah.
You failed to address who is was who forced Israel to surrender the Gaza Rafah crossing into smugglers paradise Egypt for his false peace Road Map.You failed to mentioned who brought Hamastan Gaza into existence by his pressure for free and democratic elections there.
You failed to mention who forced P.M.Sharon to remove every Jew from their home’s and land in Gaza,ethnically cleansing Jews for no peace but rockets in return.
And yet Israel has not awakened and still bends their knee to their false messiah hoping he will save them from Iran and bring peace to Israel.The sin of idolatry ,putting a Texas jerk above God will bring Israel much death and suffering.
Your misplaced faith will cost Israel dearly because you seek George and not Hashem for peace and help on the Iran threat.
You failed to mention the name of the nation and it’s agenda which Israel religiously obeys that has brought this once sovereign Israel to the place she now is.
You failed to deal with the head of the rat that brings Israel to the abyss of destruction under the lie of friend and the delusion of peace.
There are none so blind as those who refuse to see and keep the delusion strong over am Yisrael.
The problem is faithless Israeli leadership,Netanyahu included who cannot stop bowing to the will of their pimp god of the Potomac.
You again nail the problem and offer a course of action that needs to be done sooner rather than later. The IDF should be given free rein to take out any & all who attack Israel in any manner, this includes any government that allows the attacks and its citizens if Israeli citizens have been targeted. War has been declared on Israel & all Jews, it is time to accept the facts and go to war to win. The IDF should not be restrained until Israels enemies have unconditionally surrendered and the land captured should be cleared with a DMZ setup as a buffer with anyone entering the zone being given only the space needed to bury them there. This may sound harsh, but who came to aid the Jews when Hitler targeted them for extermination. WWII occurred only because Hitler continued to attack other nations not to protect the Jewish people. We must remember! It is time to remove from leadership positions any Israeli who has forgot and does not make security through strength their number one priority. Better to die fighting to live rather then waiting to be exterminated. Never surrender, NEVER SURRENDER!
There’s no need for Gaza invasion to stop the rockets. What’s needed is the automatic-reply artillery squadrons to be set up, completely open to foreign media. The radar would provide the coordinates of rocket launch, and the artillery salvo would immediately follow to suppress the origin of fire – the operation completely legal from any respect.
Some are proposing 12-hour delay “to warn the civilians”. That would make it illegal as the premeditated fire into civilian areas. Only immediate, automated response is legal.
Open up the command center for any foreign press.
Thus Hamas would be the one determining where the Israeli artillery shelling will occur.
The automated response will make it abundantly clear for Hamas the consequences for their rocket fire; and their responsibility would be made very clear to any press outfit (except AlJazeera and perhaps BBC).
It’ll take 2-3 days of mass Arab casualies that would follow for the complete cessation of rocket attacks from Gaza.
you write: “Although Olmert at the time declared war against Hizbullah” …
I feel a correction is in order. Olmert refused to declare war and spoke instead of limited special operations in the immediate vicinity of the border. Until the very end of that war his government never referred to it as such. The North regions were left without essential war insurances from the government until it ended.
The most shocking statement by Olmert was made at the third (I think) day of the war. Arrogantly self-assured, he proclamed: “we will win this war, and then will perform the withdrawal from the West Bank”.
The most important component of Israel’s strategic position is unknown to us. We don’t know how bad the secret top-level American pressure is for Israel to withdraw from the territories (or how bad a blackmail and extortion it is). Maybe the only way to escape this greatest of dangers is for Israeli government to be weak and incapable of performing the suicide demanded of it by our greatest ally.
We simply don’t know. Remember Sharon saying: what’s seen from up here, isn’t seen from down there…
Remember the theory once popular in Washington, “the road to Jerusalem leads through Baghdad”. Meaning, after the Saddam’s tank armadas threat will be eliminated there won’t be any excuses left for Israel not to withdraw and to relinquish its vital territories to the good murderes of PLO.
Remember the US providing Arafat with cover in Beirut in 1982…