My take on the exit polls

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Essentially, the exit polls (which are notoriously inaccurate and tend towards the left here), show that the right-wing won the elections and the left-wing lost. But they also show that the public has little faith in Binyamin Netanyahu. Moreover, they show that Tzipi Livni ran the race of a lifetime and will have the capacity to make life difficult for Netanyahu.

All in all, the public apparently has little confidence it its leaders, but less confidence in the Arabs.

I discussed the results on PJTV tonight. This is the link.

I was also interviewed on the Lars Larson show and it should be broadcast on his national radio show in the US later on, check your local schedules for information.

I assume I'll write a full-blown post mortem on the elections for my Friday column so stay tuned.

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  • Luigi Frascati, Canada 02/11/2009 at 4:21

    I think you are absolutely correct in your assessment on PJTV. I certainly was hoping in a better performance for Likud.

  • NormanF 02/11/2009 at 4:54

    I think the public put Bibi on probation. Given the Likud’s repeated betrayals in the past, this represents the party’s last chance to end Oslo and to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat and to eliminate the Hamas terrorist base in Gaza. The saving grace of this election is Bibi will be saved from his worst instincts by a strong set of brakes. Hopefully, he will get it right this time.

  • JB, USA 02/11/2009 at 4:57

    Caroline- What a shame that after years of Kadima corruption and official incompetence, Likud and its like-minded allies are still unable to muster more than a slim plurality. The national security coalition that re-elected Bush in 2004 collapsed with the 2006 congressional elections; while this has yet to happen in Israel, the public’s lukewarm support for a repeat Netanyahu premiership is a sign that Euro-style “third way” politics have made a significant gain among even traumatized Israeli voters.

  • Marc Handelsman, USA 02/11/2009 at 5:30

    For Kadima to govern, it will need Israel Beiteinu in its coalition. As Israel moves toward the right, it must have an effective government that will liquidate Hamas and neutralize Iran’s nuclear program.

  • Yotam Barnoy 02/11/2009 at 7:13

    Bibi made a big mistake trying to move to the center. The Left, so prominent in the big cities (much like Democratic America), hates him with a passion (brought on by the Israeli media) and will not have moved towards Likud. Kadima was as far as they’d go (which is really not very far at all). They’d rather vote for a completely incompetent party than vote for him. It would be interesting to know how many voted for Kadima just to ‘stop’ Bibi and Lieberman.
    By moving Leftwards, Bibi allowed Lieberman to usurp the right. Bibi missed this danger entirely and the Likud paid for it.
    Lieberman also marketed himself brilliantly, using a consistent, clear slogan that appealed to almost all Israelis.
    So the story of this election is: the right (in the periphery) wants Bibi; the left (in the cities) despises him; the right is currently a tad stronger than the left, and Bibi shot himself in the foot by trying to market to the left.

  • Pops in Vienna 02/11/2009 at 7:28

    How do you say disaster in Hebrew?
    I find it incredible that so many people voted for Livni. I guess that means Israelis think her party’s approach over the past few years has been effective. If I was an Arab I’d take the show of support for Livni as a sign that the rocket attacks and kidnappings can continue with the occasional, ineffective IDF “raid” into Gaza or Lebanon.
    Looks like the Iranians have the green light now to continue developing nuclear weapons. The USA won’t stop them. The EU won’t stop them. Yesterday, Israel decided not to stop them.
    I don’t know what the polling demographics will reflect but I suppose the MTV generation in Israel had much to do with this upset. Unicorns and rainbows forever.
    You might consider moving back to Hyde Park before it’s too late.
    Mazel tov

  • Phil S 02/11/2009 at 17:23

    This is amazing. Bibi might be lame and Lieberman might be a fraud but Livni is a joke. Israel has a bleak future if they think times like this are a good time to turn to Livni.

  • Luigi Frascati, Canada 02/11/2009 at 20:17

    Ms. Glick, if I may suggest an eye-catching title for your Friday column, how about “Requiem For An Election”.
    Looking forward to read it.

  • Timothy Kriete For Israel FOREVER MORE GENESIS 12:1-3 AMEN 02/11/2009 at 23:14

    Dear Caroline;
    I Viewed Your Interview On Pajamas TV, You Seem
    Stay Strong Baby Girl…..Tim

  • Pops in Vienna 02/12/2009 at 10:15

    I guess at this point (Feb 12th) it’s still too early to say who will end up being the PM.
    I’ve been doing a great deal of reading about this election. There were websites with the theme, “Anybody but Netanyahu” and we had young voters bemoaning the fact that they didn’t have an “Obama like” candidate to vote for.
    It’s amazing, that with Kadima’s past record that they could get anybody to vote for the. One really has to wonder if the entire world has gone mad.
    I hope the poster Tim Kriete is correct. The only thing that can save Israel now is an act of G-d.

  • Timothy Kriete For Israel FOREVER MORE GENESIS 12:1-3 AMEN 02/13/2009 at 22:00

    Dear Pops In Vienna; I LOVE YOU TOO BROTHER
    And Yes Only The LORD God Of Jacob In The NAME
    Of The Holy One Of Israel Guided By The Holy
    Spirit Of Jehovah EL Shaddai The ONLY TRUE
    Living God Of ALL Flesh (Jeremiah 32:26-27)
    Can Save Israel, I Thank The LORD Our God Daily
    For Caroline Glick, She Is Truly THE LORD’S
    ANNOITED For Such A Time As This, Esther 4:14!
    Stay Strong Caroline My Precious Sister For
    Zion’s Sake (Isaiah 53-63 AMEN). Thy Eternal
    Servant And Brother Tim 🙂 Numbers 6:24-27 AMEN

  • Garry Lockwood 02/20/2009 at 13:32

    Keep your insightful analysis coming please Caroline. You are a trusted and reliable commentator. I wish we had more like you, especially here in Oz.


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